В распоряжение наблюдателей в Копенгагене попал проект политической декларации, готовящейся к принятию мировыми лидерами сегодня. Ниже краткий анализ пунктов декларации, которую уже можно назвать абсолютно провальной не смотря на то, что к вечеру скорее всего загремят фанфары.
Удерживание роста температуры в пределах 2 градуса Цельсия упоминается, как научный взгляд, но не как реальная цель
Стороны должны сотрудничать с тем, чтобы достичь пика выбросов парниковых газов так скоро как возможно. Однако не зафиксировано ни временного графика, ни реальных обязательств.
Адаптация к изменению климата станет вызовом для всех.
Развитые страны предоставят финансовые средства — нет упоминания о новых и дополнительных средствах.
Развивающиеся страны будут обеспечены финансовыми средствами — включены слова «новые и дополнительные». Однако, ни о каких конкретных обязательствах не упоминается.
Страны приложения 1 (развитые) будут снижать (выбросы) согласно собственным заявлениям. (Чего абсолютно недостаточно — см. вчерашний материал «Меньше двух»)
Принцип MRV (измеряемый, сообщаемый, проверяемый) для действий, которые получают финансовую поддержку.
Обещания сторон в отношении финансовых средств — $30 млрд на 2010-2012
Стороны поддерживают цель достичь размера климатического фонда $100 млрд к 2020
Рассмотрение результатов в 2016.
Разработка юридических инструментов — не позднее, чем COP16.
«Меньше двух» считает, что документа, в котором не закреплено четких обязательств по ограничению выбросов (да и вообще никаких конкретных обязательств), недостаточно. Фактически, реализуется вариант, который до начала саммита в Копенгагене считался худшим из возможных. Редакция «Меньше двух» считает, что развитые и крупнейшие развивающиеся страны должны обеспечить снижение глобальных выбросов на 25-40% к 2020 году, чтобы удержать рост температуры в пределах 2 градусов Цельсия. В противном случае, саммит в Копенгагене — пустая трата времени и ресурсов.
меньше двух градусов 
Позор… Выходит собрались лидеры, поспорили. шампанского попили, поели, выбросили в окружающую среду лишнее количество выбросов и отходов и поехали по домам. Верно говорят — Сытый голодного не разумеет. Ток вот насколько все это долго продлится….
Совершенно очевидно, что провал Копенгагена был запланирован еще в Бали. Балийский план никто всерьез не принимал и не стремился выполнить — это корень теперяшних проблем.
Вопрос в том, что и как надо делать, чтобы хотя бы к КОП16 ситуация изменилась бы.
Было бы хорошо… Чем меньше этих «КОП» тем безопаснее климату.
По данным свидетелей ночных переговоров, лидеры развивающихся стран не согласны с декларацией. Видимо, нужно ожидать продолжения копенгагенской сессии в Бонне следующим летом.
Угу… Вся эта галиматься с переговорами длиться уже какой год… Насколько я понял из новостей из Копена и сообщений нашего сотрудника, все это время, лидеры изощрялись в краснословии и попытках ухватить друг-друга за за «Парниковое место».
Проживая сам в стране развивающийся, поддерживаю позицию «Третих стран». В принципе это и очеведно, не помирать же народу с голоду. Но как верно подметил сегодня мой друг — «Не решим проблему срочно, вскоре либо люди в развивающихся странах вернутся в пещеры и будут гибнуть от холода и голода, либо подохнем всей планетой сообща». Грубо, но точно, иначе тут никак не выразится.
А что касается Бонна… Это еще бабушка надвое сказала, что страны вырабатают общую позицию, жесткую позицию, и подпишут документ не с рекомендациями, а с вполне конкретными обязательствами.
А пока что нас ждет еще один бардак, под названием климатические переговоры. допольнительные расходы средств и ресурсов, которые можно было бы пустить на адаптацию….Имхо.
сам текст проекта декларации
The Heads of State, Heads of Government, Ministers, and other heads of
delegation present at the fifteenth session of the Conference of the
Parties and the fifth meeting of the Parties to Conference of the
Parties to the to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change,
In pursuit of the ultimate objective of the Convention as stated in
its Article 2,
Recalling the provisions of the Convention,
Being guided by Article 3 of the Convention,
Affirming our firm resolve to adopt one or more legal instruments
under the Convention pursuant to decisions taken at COP13 and this
decision as soon as possible and no later than COP16/CMP6.
Have agreed on this Copenhagen [X] which is operational immediately
1. The Parties underline that climate change is one of the
greatest challenges of our time. The Parties emphasise their strong
political will to combat climate change in accordance with the
principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities. Recognizing the scientific view that the increase in
global temperature ought not to exceed 2 degrees and on the basis of
equity and in the context of sustainable development, the Parties
commit to a vigorous response through immediate and enhanced national
action on mitigation based on strengthened international cooperation.
Ambitious action to mitigate climate change is needed with developed
countries taking the lead. The Parties recognize the critical impact
of climate change on countries particularly vulnerable to its adverse
effects and stress the need to establish a comprehensive adaptation
programme including international support.
2. Deep cuts in global emissions are required. The Parties should
cooperate in achieving the peaking of global and national emissions as
soon as possible, recognizing that the time frame for peaking will be
longer in developing country Parties and bearing in mind that social
and economic development and poverty eradication are the first and
overriding priorities of developing country Parties and that
low-emission development is indispensible to sustainable development.
3. Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change is a
challenge faced by all Parties, and enhanced action and international
cooperation on adaptation is urgently required to enable and support
the implementation of adaptation actions aimed at reducing
vulnerability and building resilience in developing country Parties,
especially in those that are particularly vulnerable, especially least
developed countries, small island developing States and countries in
Africa affected by drought, desertification and floods. The Parties
agree that developed country Parties shall provide adequate,
predictable and sustainable financial resources, technology and
capacity-building to support the implementation of adaptation action
in developing country Parties. The Parties further endorse -/CP.15 on
adaptation.
4. Annex I Parties to the Convention commit to implement,
individually or jointly, the quantified economy-wide emission targets
for 2020 as listed yielding in aggregate reductions of greenhouse gas
emissions of X per cent in 2020 compared to 1990 and Y per cent in
2020 compared to 2005 ensuring that accounting of such targets and
finance is rigorous, robust and transparent.
5. Non-Annex I Parties to the Convention resolve to implement
mitigation actions, based on their specific national circumstances and
in the context of sustainable development. Mitigation actions taken
and envisaged by Non-Annex I Parties shall be reflected through their
national communications in accordance with Article 12.1 (b) of the
Convention. The frequency of submissions of the national
communications of Non-Annex I Parties shall be every two years.
Mitigation actions taken by Non-Annex I Parties will be subject to
their domestic auditing, supervision and assessment, the result of
which will be reported through their national communications.
Clarification may, upon request, be provided by the Party concerned at
its discretion to respond to any question regarding information
contained in the national communications. Nationally appropriate
mitigation actions supported and enabled by countries in terms of
technology, financing and capacity building, will be registered in a
registry, including both action taken and relevant technology,
financing and capacity building support. These supported nationally
appropriate mitigation actions shall be subject to international
measurement, reporting and verification in accordance with guidelines
elaborated by the COP. The Parties take note of the information on
enhanced mitigation action actions by Non-Annex I Parties as listed.
6. Developing countries Parties should, in accordance with the
provisions contained in decision /CP.15, contribute to mitigation
actions in the forest sector by undertaking the following activities:
reducing emissions from deforestation, reducing emissions from forest
degradation, conservation of forest carbon stocks, sustainable
management of forest, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks.
7. The Parties decide to pursue various approaches, including
opportunities to use markets, to enhance the cost-effectiveness of,
and to promote, mitigation actions, in accordance with decision
-/CP.15.
8. Scaled up, new and additional, predictable and adequate
funding shall be provided to developing country Parties, in accordance
with the relevant provisions of the Convention, to enable and support
enhanced action on mitigation, including REDD-plus, adaptation,
technology development and transfer and capacity-building, for
enhanced implementation of the Convention. Parties take note of the
individual pledges by developed country Parties to provide new and
additional resources amounting to 30 billion dollars for the period
2010-2012 as listed and with funding for adaptation prioritized for
the most vulnerable developing countries, such as the least developed
countries, small island developing states and countries in Africa
affected by drought, desertification and floods. In the context of
meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation, the
Parties support a goal of mobilizing jointly 100 billion dollars a
year by 2020 to address the climate change needs of
developing countries. This funding will come from a wide variety of
sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including
alternative sources of finance.
9. A High Level Panel will be established under the guidance of
and accountable to the Conference of then Parties to assess the
contribution of the potential sources of revenue, including
alternative sources of finance, towards meeting this goal.
10. The Parties decide that the Copenhagen Climate Fund shall be
established as an operating entity of the financial mechanism of the
Convention to support projects, programmes, policies and other
activities in developing countries related to mitigation including
REDD-plus, adaptation, capacity-building, technology development and
transfer as set forth in decision -/CP.15.
11. In order to enhance action on development and transfer of
technology the Parties decide to establish a Technology Mechanism as
set forth in decision -/CP.15 to accelerate technology development and
transfer in support of action on adaptation and mitigation that will
be guided by a country-driven approach and be based on national
circumstances and priorities.
12. The Parties call for a review of this decision and its
implementation in 2016 including in light of the Conventions ultimate
objective.
13. Capturing the progress achieved in the work by the Ad Hoc
Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action and Ad Hoc Working Group
on the Kyoto Protocol under the Convention the Parties by continuing
negotiations pursuant to decisions taken at COP13 and this decision,
with a view to adopting one or more legal instruments under the
Convention as soon as possible and no later than COP16. Deciding to
extend the mandate of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long Term
Cooperative Action under the Convention and continue the work of the
Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under
Kyoto Protocol to negotiate one or more legal instruments under the
Convention.
It’s not failture, it’s minimum that allow moving
forward.
well, we don’t need minimum. we need legally binding agreement.
very interesting…